Greenhouse gas levels continue to rise at an accelerated rate

In the 2015 Paris Agreement, politicians pledged to limit the rise in global temperature from pre-industrial levels to 1.5 ° C and promised to stop rising greenhouse gas emissions as soon as possible. as soon as possible and make quick reductions according to the best science available. achieving a balance between human emissions by sources and the elimination by greenhouse gas sinks in the second half of this century.

However, greenhouse gas levels continue to rise and the rise appears to be accelerating.

Carbon dioxide

The annual global growth rate of carbon dioxide (CO₂) has been increasing over the years (see image above). The global CO₂ level of February 2021 was 2.96 ppm higher than the global CO₂ level of February 2020 (pictured left).

The global CO₂ level of March 2021 was 2.89 ppm higher than the global CO₂ level of March 2020 (pictured left), again well above the average annual growth rate of the last decade. The restrictions associated with the COVID-19 pandemic did not cause any perceptible signal in the data.

Most recent stocks are available in Mauna Loa, Hawaii. As the image on the right shows, the average monthly CO₂ level in Mauna Loa was 419.13 ppm for May 2021, while the weekly average was up to 420.01 ppm (for the week that ends May 1, 2021).

On April 8, 2021, CO₂ levels in Mauna Loa, Hawaii, reached a level of 421.36 ppm, while several hourly averages recorded in early April approached 422 ppm (see entry previous).

According to NOAA, the atmospheric load of CO₂ is now comparable to that which occurred during the optimal Pliocene climate, between 4.1 and 4.5 million years ago, when CO₂ was close to or greater than 400 ppm. During this time, the average temperature was about 4 ° C (7 ° F) higher than in pre-industrial times, and sea level was about 24 m (78 ft) higher than today.

Half

The 2020 annual global methane (CH₄) growth rate of 15.85 ppb was the highest recorded. The overall level of CH₄ in January 2021 was 1893.4 ppb, 20 ppb more than the January 2020 level.

Nitrogen oxide

The global annual growth rate of nitrous oxide (N₂O) in 2020 of 1.33 ppb was the highest recorded. The overall N₂O level in January 2021 was 333.9 ppb, 1.4 ppb higher than the January 2020 level.

Greenhouse gas levels are accelerating, despite promises by politicians to drastically reduce emissions. It turns out that politicians have not taken the steps they promised they would take.

Of course, when nitrous oxide is also added, the settling point of the clouds can cross even earlier.

Elements that contribute to the increase in temperature

Alongside rising levels of greenhouse gases, there are other elements that may contribute to a rise in temperature soon.

As the image of Nico Sun illustrates, the accumulation of energy that will melt the sea ice is maximum for the time of year.

As the combined image above illustrates, the thickness of sea ice is now substantially less than it used to be. The image is compared on June 1, 2021 (left) to June 1, 2015 (right).

The animation on the right shows that sea ice is shrinking rapidly, indicating that the buffer formed by sea ice below the surface is almost gone, meaning that more heat entering the Arctic Ocean will heat up sharply. Water.

As described in a previous post, this can destabilize methane hydrates in sediments on the seabed of the Arctic Ocean, leading to the eruption of methane from these hydrates and methane that is in the form of free gas. below these hydrates.

These methane eruptions will first heat the Arctic, causing the loss of the Arctic sea ice’s ability to reflect sunlight into space (albedo feedback), the disappearance of glaciers, and the rapid melting of the Arctic. terrestrial permafrost (and the associated release of greenhouse gases).

The snowball effect

Temperatures are rising and rising at an accelerated pace, especially in the Arctic. A strong El Niño and a distortion of the jet stream could cause the turning points of latent heat and methane hydrates to cross quickly, causing many reactions to start with increasing ferocity and increase the temperature. global beyond 3 ° C, 4 ° C and 5 ° C above pre-industrial, like a snowball that continues to grow in size as it picks up more and more snow as it runs down a very steep slope.

Crossing turning points and other events and developments can be combined with feedback on a rapidly rising snowball effect of temperatures.

Comments include changes to the Jet Stream that lead to increasingly extreme weather events, such as storms and wildfires. These events can cause huge greenhouse gas emissions.

Temperatures can also be expected to increase over the next few years as sulfate cooling decreases. Aerosols can cause overheating if more black and brown carbon is emitted due to the burning of more wood and forest fire. Black carbon and brown carbon have a clean warming effect and can settle on snow and ice and accelerate their decline.

Therefore, the rise of 8 ° C as a result of crossing the settling point of the clouds would reach above the warming due to other elements, and the total rise could reach 18 ° C or 32.4 ° F from the pre-industrial, as the image on the right illustrates, from a previous post.

Very high sea surface temperature anomalies

Meanwhile, sea surface temperatures in the northern hemisphere continue to rise. The following image shows that sea surface temperature anomalies on the US east coast (in the green circle) reached 13.7 ° C (24.7 ° F) on June 3, 2021.

More heat flows from the tropics along the east coast of the United States to the Arctic Ocean, transported by the Gulf Stream, as illustrated by the image on the right.

In conclusion, by 2026 there could be a huge rise in temperature.

With an increase of 3 ° C, humans are likely to become extinct, which, from some perspectives, will make it useless to speculate on what will happen beyond 2026.

However, the right thing to do is to prevent the worst from happening, through comprehensive and effective action as described in the Climate Plan.