Tropical Storm Nicholas has a large cloud signature on the satellite views, but does not have the classic rotation around a well-defined center. In fact, it appears to have several centers and the newest is formed NE of the most recent location.
If the north L is the new center, that would mean Nicholas is moving faster and NHC now says the move is heading north at 12 mph. It is a “loaded storm” in the east with very little rain in the west. The radars see that most of the action is still offshore.
Due to increased forward movement, NHC has lowered total rainfall forecasts as they do not expect Nicholas to stop like Harvey in 2017.
What you can see is that they have moved the area 4-6 “further east for most of SE LA. This is for three days and is not what we need with all the ongoing repairs. Here you have it. the newest NHC track.
It looks like last night, with all of southern Louisiana being on the wet side.
The centerline route shifted west to Houston at 4 a.m., but shifted east with the last warning. Since Nicholas does not have a well-defined center, trying to trace this centerline is quite futile. Check out what Zack Fradella just showed on FOX 8.
Therefore, before launching into forecasts, you need to understand the uncertainties of Mother Nature. In the words of Tim Floyd … “never ignore the obvious.” What seems easy is often not when a storm does not behave according to the models. What we do know is that Nicholas will be a manufacturer of heavy rain for us, but not today. The strongest winds will be along the upper Texas coast.
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